Scotland's first-mover opportunity in floating offshore wind is time-bound

Four years ago, Scotland signalled its ambition in floating offshore wind. ScotWind and INTOG drew global interest and spurred development across our waters, ports and supply chain.

Scotland now has a floating offshore wind pipeline of more than 23GW. Around 14GW across eight projects has entered the planning system, while three further projects have secured consent.

But four years on, the sector is at a critical juncture.

The world has changed since those leases were awarded. Developers face higher costs and a tougher operating environment, while investors weigh the pace of consenting and changes to grid connections and long-term network planning. Decisions in these areas must give businesses the confidence to invest.

Confidence matters because Scotland’s opportunity is not guaranteed. Crown Estate Scotland estimates that the 10 floating offshore wind projects in ScotWind could spend £18.4 billion in the Scottish supply chain over their lifetimes, rising to £25.9 billion across the UK. Realising that potential requires us to go further and faster.

That is why Andy Burnham is right to champion reindustrialisation and good growth. Floating offshore wind can turn those ambitions into lasting opportunities for coastal and industrial communities, but only if our backing for the sector remains steadfast.

This backing must also address pressures facing households and businesses. Domestic energy costs have doubled since 2017, with around 70% of the increase attributed to inflation and rising global commodity prices. Households and businesses need relief now and a future where global events have less impact on what they pay at home.

That makes the case for investment more urgent, not less.

Floating offshore wind alone will not deliver lower bills overnight. But it can play an important role in a future energy system. Bringing its costs down starts with building and learning from key stepping-stone projects, helping the sector scale up towards commercial deployment.

A steady programme of larger developments must follow those early projects. This will extend beyond 2030, so ports and suppliers need a clear timetable that gives them confidence to invest in construction, operation and maintenance activities.
Affordability and industrial growth also depend on tackling risks developers cannot control.

Transmission charging is a case in point. Developers must account for what they will pay to use the grid, yet those charges are rising and increasingly difficult to predict. In the North of Scotland, where much of our offshore wind resource lies, these charges are expected to double by 2030 with £2.9 billion of unforeseen costs since 2015. Developers must factor that risk into their bids or think twice about building.

The forthcoming Strategic Spatial Energy Plan presents another decisive test for investor confidence.

Scotland has brought projects forward and developed port facilities in places such as Ardersier, Montrose, Kishorn and Leith. A plan that casts doubt on that pipeline and the local activity it supports would send a damaging signal just when those investments need to gather pace.

The timing matters for the wider North Sea too. If good growth is to reach every postcode, we must bridge the gap between the industries sustaining offshore communities today and the projects that can sustain them in future. Skilled workers and specialist suppliers cannot wait indefinitely. Without clear signals soon, we risk losing expertise and investment that will be hard to replace.

The barriers remain clear: grid access, pace of consenting, supply chain readiness and viable routes to market. No single policy fix will remove them all. Yet allowing them to compound makes the overall case for investment harder to sustain.

Government and industry must act together to build confidence, bring costs down and keep Scotland’s offshore expertise at work. Floating offshore wind can help meet the country’s most pressing needs: energy security, more affordable electricity and good jobs in places that have powered Britain for generations.

Scotland has the projects and the expertise, but its first-mover opportunity in floating offshore wind is time-bound. Backing the sector now means making the decisions that will carry it through its early years. Without that resolve, investment, jobs and hard-won capability will go elsewhere.

• By Angela Hepworth, Chief Executive of Scottish Renewables. 

This article was first publised in reNEWS on October 6.